In a medium saucepan, heat the oil over medium-low heat. Add the onion and cook, stirring frequently until soft, about 4 minutes. Add the garlic and cook 1 minute more. Add the ketchup, water, brown sugar, molasses, cider vinegar, Worcestershire sauce, chili powder, smoked paprika, and cumin; stir to combine and bring to a simmer. Cook, stirring occasionally, until slightly thickened, about 15 minutes. At this point, the sauce is ready to serve, but if you'd like to make it completely smooth, transfer it to a blender and blend until smooth.